TLDR: Northern Ireland’s labour market shows signs of cooling, with a drop of around 700 workers on payrolls last month despite a year-on-year increase in employment. While redundancies are on the rise, average wages continue to edge higher, leaving questions about the sustainability of this growth.
In a noteworthy shift, the number of workers on payrolls in Northern Ireland decreased by approximately 700 last month, according to new data released by HMRC. The total number of pay-as-you-earn (PAYE) employees stood at 819,181 in August, down from a record high of 819,830 in July. Nevertheless, this August figure is still 6,765 better than the same month last year, indicating that while the trend may be contracting, it’s not all doom and gloom.
Published as part of the latest labour market report from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (Nisra), these figures are further complicated by a noticeable uptick in redundancies, with 130 jobs already cut, and employers proposing an additional 290. This data only captures instances where employers are legally required to report job losses of 20 or more, suggesting the real picture could be even more sobering.
Despite this cooling in the labour market, HMRC’s latest figures indicate that the median monthly wage for employees rose by 0.6% in August, clocking in at £2,509. Compared to August 2022, average wages were up by 5.6%, outpacing the rate of inflation, which stood at 2.9% in the UK as of July. So, while a few job losses and redundancies are cause for concern, it seems that those who remain in employment are reaping the benefits in terms of pay.
One can’t help but chuckle at the paradox of the situation: while we’re witnessing a cooling labour market, workers are still stacking more pounds in their pockets. Perhaps this is Northern Ireland’s way of saying, “Hey, don’t worry about the job losses; at least you’re getting paid better!” But one has to wonder how long this trend can last. If businesses are tightening their belts, will the salary increases continue?
The most recent labour market survey from Nisra reported an official unemployment rate in the north at 2.4% over the three months leading up to July, with an employment rate estimated at 72.2%. Meanwhile, economic inactivity has dipped to 26%, signaling subtle improvements even as overall job numbers fluctuate.
Speaking of fluctuations, it’s worth noting the number of weekly hours worked in the region, which has dipped to 29.3 million hours over the same quarter, showcasing a decline both quarterly and annually. It seems as if, while some people are earning more, fewer hours are being put in. A curious case indeed.
Interestingly, the world of employment statistics never lacks surprises. Did you know that the unemployment rate in Northern Ireland was a staggering 15% during the peak of the financial crisis in 2012? Today’s numbers might not be perfect, but they are a world away from the dark days of economic turmoil just over a decade ago.
For now, as we keep an eye on the wage increases and employment stabilizations, we must remain vigilant. Will our economy ride this wave of pay growth, or are we simply dodging the inevitable? Only time will tell.
