- Analyst Gordon Johnson raises alarm over Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) safety metrics, noting a steep decline in critical disengagement data.
- Tesla’s “city miles to critical disengagement” fell from 4,109 to 809 following the rollout of FSD v14.2.
- The data suggests a significant disparity in safety readiness compared to competitors like Waymo, which did not remove safety drivers until reaching 30,000 city miles.
- Johnson questions the oversight of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration amidst these findings.
- Tesla maintains its FSD has driven over 8.2 billion miles, claiming a lower accident rate compared to human drivers.
Gordon Johnson, an analyst with GLJ Research, has issued a stark warning regarding Tesla Inc.’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, supported by troubling data from the third-party FSD Community Tracker. The core of his concerns hinges on the steep decline in a crucial safety metric known as “city miles to critical disengagement.” This metric, essential for assessing the safety of autonomous driving systems, indicates how far a vehicle can travel before disengagement occurs—a critical measure of reliability.
According to Johnson’s analysis, the metric soared to its peak in October 2025, reaching 4,109 city miles per critical disengagement. However, following the launch of FSD v14.2, this figure plummeted to a mere 809 city miles. Such a drop raises immediate questions about the effectiveness and safety of Tesla’s latest software version.
What’s particularly noteworthy is that Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO, has engaged with the same tracker data Johnson cites, underscoring the high stakes involved. Johnson compared Tesla’s performance to that of Alphabet Inc.-backed Waymo, which maintained a much higher threshold for safety by not removing drivers from its vehicles until they reached 30,000 city miles. The disparity—a more than 37-fold difference—serves to highlight the challenges Tesla faces in assuring the safety of its autonomous platform.
This dramatic decline in performance has led Johnson to question the oversight being exercised by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). As autonomous vehicles increasingly venture onto public roads, regulatory scrutiny is critical to ensuring that safety standards are met.
In February, Tesla had boasted that its Supervised FSD had accumulated over 8.2 billion miles, including 3 billion in city environments, while touting a claim of “7X fewer major collisions versus human drivers.” However, as Johnson points out, raw mileage does not compensate for significant lapses in safety metrics.
Amidst this turmoil, it’s essential for investors and consumers alike to tread cautiously, weighing Tesla’s ambitious claims against the emerging concerns surrounding its FSD technology. As the automotive landscape shifts rapidly toward automation, scrutiny over safety protocols will be paramount—particularly as companies like Tesla continue to push boundaries.
Interestingly, as of 2023, the global autonomous vehicle market is projected to reach $60 billion, highlighting both the opportunities and risks associated with this burgeoning sector. Consumers will undoubtedly demand not only innovation but also uncompromised safety as they navigate this exciting yet perilous frontier.
For further insights, refer to the detailed analysis on the topic available at Yahoo Finance.
