Overview
ChatGPT Ads may already deserve a place in your media plan, but treat the placement as a tactical experiment rather than a strategic cornerstone. That is the central argument made by Rémi Kerhoas in Search Engine Land, and it is a sensible reading for Irish advertisers weighing limited budgets against a crowded digital market. See the full analysis by Rémi Kerhoas on Search Engine Land. https://searchengineland.com/chatgpt-ads-media-plan-488291
The platform parallel with the browser wars
A useful way to understand the current AI assistant market is to overlay historical browser share data with recent monthly active user trends. StatCounter charts for browser market share from 2008 to 2026 show how an early leader can be swept aside while a platform embedded in an ecosystem climbs relentlessly. https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share#yearly-2009-2026
Sensor Tower data for AI assistants tells a similar story. ChatGPT experienced a rapid rise and then a marked plateau in mid 2025, while Google’s Gemini shows steadier, ecosystem-driven growth. That pattern matters because it explains why distribution often trumps singular product features.
Distribution is destiny
The lesson for marketers is straightforward: where users are found at scale matters more than which assistant answers best in a vacuum. Google’s advantage is distribution. Gemini benefits from being native to Search, Android, Workspace and YouTube, meaning it arrives as part of existing user flows rather than asking users to change behaviour. That is a durable competitive advantage and it will shape ad economics over time.
By contrast, ChatGPT must earn each user through downloads, retention hooks and repeat engagement. That is a harder, more expensive path. The practical implication is this: consider ChatGPT Ads like an emergent channel with early inventory advantages rather than a replacement for search or social budgets.
OpenAI appears to be building for B2B
Signals inside OpenAI reinforce the idea that advertising is not its strategic north star. Public comments by Sam Altman in late 2024 signalled discomfort with ads as a core model, and subsequent leadership appointments have skewed towards enterprise and security expertise rather than ad sales experience. That shift lines up with the company forecasting large enterprise-driven revenue opportunities and investing in product offerings such as ChatGPT Work, which integrates into inboxes and collaboration tools to automate white-collar workflows.
In short, advertising looks like a revenue bridge while enterprise and API services are the destination. For marketers this matters because it suggests the ad product may receive less long-term attention and development than Google’s ad ecosystem.
Why you should still test ChatGPT Ads
None of the structural reservations mean you should ignore the channel entirely. There are three practical reasons to run controlled tests now.
– Stability backed by deep pockets. Partnerships and revenue at scale from major cloud partners mean ChatGPT is unlikely to disappear quickly, giving advertisers a reasonable planning horizon.
– Lower competition and favourable pricing. Early studies point to concentrated advertiser activity and thin auction pressure, meaning CPMs and CPCs can be unusually attractive for first movers.
– Timely market expansions. OpenAI’s push into multiple European markets ahead of Q4 is designed to generate performance signals for advertisers planning 2027 budgets. Now is when you can gather cheap first-party learning.
How to test responsibly
If you decide to experiment, do so in a disciplined way focused on learning and incrementality.
– Start small and measurable. Allocate a modest test budget proportionate to your total digital spend and run experiments for a finite period.
– Measure incrementality. Use holdout groups or lift tests to determine whether ChatGPT Ads truly reach incremental customers or merely cannibalise clicks you would otherwise receive from Google or Meta.
– Track audience overlap. Early data indicates a strong overlap between ChatGPT users and Google audiences. Monitor overlap metrics to assess the true reach benefit.
– Optimise for business outcomes. Given the platform is young, focus on conversions or value-based metrics rather than vanity KPIs.
– Capture creative learnings. Test prompt-based ad copy versus more traditional formats to discover what resonates in an assistant-first environment.
Where to keep the bulk of your budget
Do not mistake a short window of cheap inventory for a durable shift in the media ecosystem. Distribution wins in the long run. That makes Google and Meta the platforms to defend with the majority of your spend while you use ChatGPT Ads to build a knowledge edge that will be useful if and when the channel matures.
Conclusion
ChatGPT Ads represent a tactical opportunity: low competition, potentially low costs and the chance to learn early. They are also a limited runway. OpenAI’s broader strategic trajectory points toward enterprise products and away from advertising as a central business focus. For Irish advertisers the pragmatic approach is to test with clear measurement, protect share on dominant platforms, and treat ChatGPT Ads as a tool for incremental discovery rather than the foundation of your digital strategy. For more background and the data visualisations that inspired this analysis, read Rémi Kerhoas on Search Engine Land and consult the StatCounter browser-share charts. https://searchengineland.com/chatgpt-ads-media-plan-488291 https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share#yearly-2009-2026
